At New York Tech Week on Tuesday, IBM’s CEO made his strongest argument so far that quantum computing is real, ready for business, and closer than most people think. Even as Arvind Krishna called quantum the next step after CPUs and GPUs and promised a $10 billion investment over five years, IBM shares dropped along with the broader market. Here’s a look at what IBM is working on and why management’s confidence isn’t matched by investors.
One clear sign of progress is a joint experiment with the Cleveland Clinic and Riken, where quantum supercomputing was used to model a protein complex with over 12,000 atoms. This is a big jump from the 300-atom molecule researchers modeled at the end of 2025. Krishna said they expect to double that number in the next month or two. This matters because if quantum computers can model protein binding in minutes, it could lead to new ways to discover drugs that regular computers can’t handle.
IBM plans to launch Starling, an error-corrected quantum supercomputer, in 2029, with an even more advanced system coming after 2030. Krishna said the next two years will be about solving engineering problems like making the system bigger and more reliable, not about new scientific breakthroughs. This suggests IBM believes the toughest scientific hurdles are already behind them.
Government support is now backing IBM’s efforts. The Commerce Department has pledged $1 billion for IBM’s upcoming quantum chip foundry, Anderon, as part of a $2 billion funding package. Anderon will run on its own, with IBM as just one of its customers, and will also provide infrastructure for other quantum hardware companies.
Investors still aren’t convinced. Quantinuum, the first pure quantum company to go public through a regular IPO, started trading 13% higher on Thursday but ended the day up less than 1%. On Friday, it dropped another 9.8%. This weak start shows that investors are unsure about how soon quantum will pay off and whether it will be commercially successful.
Krishna recognized the skepticism and seemed almost pleased by it. He said he doesn’t mind that the market is focused on AI instead of quantum, hinting that IBM could deliver major breakthroughs before the decade ends while competitors are distracted.
