Semiconductor stocks are falling as an analyst says the recent rally might be overdone. On Friday, Intel shares dropped 4.1% in premarket trading. Advanced Micro Devices fell 3.4%, and Arm Holdings lost 4.4%, as investors took profits after a big surge fueled by demand for AI server CPUs. UBS has issued a warning about how long this chip rally can last and what it could mean for investors who still own semiconductor stocks.
All three stocks have jumped in recent months because investors believe their CPUs are now essential for AI server infrastructure. The gains have been big. Intel’s stock has more than tripled this year, and AMD and Arm have also seen large increases.
UBS’s head of HOLT, the bank’s corporate performance and valuation team, raised concern that the current strong performance of AI-focused semiconductor companies is largely based on the belief that these firms will not face the typical competition that restricts profits and growth in most industries. The analyst explained that if competitive pressure increases, as it has in other sectors, profit margins could decline, putting investors at risk.
The data highlights the issue. AI chip stocks are on track for an average cash flow return on investment of 30% this year, a level that is rarely sustained. Only one in five companies that reach this return keep it a decade later. The April rally in U.S. share prices was a 2.8 standard deviation event compared to any similar one-month period in the past 25 years, making it a rare outlier and suggesting the market may be overly optimistic.
Friday’s drop signals growing investor caution in the rally.
