SpaceX shares are down for the third day in a row. On Monday, the stock dropped 5.4% in premarket trading to $175.05. While this is still higher than the $135 IPO price, it is a big drop from last week’s $225.64 high. A new analyst report with a neutral rating is adding to the pressure. Below is what KeyBanc said and why trading activity could be just as important as company fundamentals for SpaceX right now.
KeyBanc started coverage with a Sector Weight rating and did not set a price target. The firm believes SpaceX’s strong growth prospects are already built into the current stock price. The analyst pointed out that the company trades at about 29 times his 2027 revenue estimate, which is much higher than similar companies in space, telecom, and AI. KeyBanc also said it is hard to value SpaceX because there are no other companies that combine rocket launches, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence in the same way.
KeyBanc’s analysis focuses on Starship as the main factor. This larger, reusable rocket is needed to launch the next generation of Starlink satellites and to support SpaceX’s plans for AI data centers in orbit. The analyst said that progress with Starship will determine how quickly both the satellite internet and space-based AI businesses can grow. Without more proof that Starship is advancing, KeyBanc is not ready to give those future revenues a higher value.
Trading activity is probably having a bigger impact on SpaceX’s stock price than analyst opinions right now. Only about 639 million shares can be traded, out of more than 13 billion total shares. This small float makes the stock more volatile. Over the next few months, more shares will become available as lockup periods end, with the first large batch expected after SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report. This extra supply could put pressure on the stock, even if the company’s outlook does not change.
